NFL Betting Guide (DIVISIONAL ROUND)

We’ve moved past wildcard weekend last week and now find ourselves in the divisional round of the 2018-19 NFL playoffs. Just like last week, there are 4 games: 2 tomorrow and 2 on Sunday. On paper, it seems like all 4 of these matchups should be easy picks, but this is the playoffs we’re talking about here, and as I can attest to because of my abysmal betting record during the regular season, there is no such thing as a gimme. That being said, let’s take a look at the 4 games coming up this weekend

SATURDAY

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+5) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-5): CHIEFS -5

The Colts have been impressive to say the least in the second half of the season, and they continued this dominance by coming into Houston and giving the Texans the business last week by going up 21-0 at one point. The Chiefs on the other hand did the opposite of the Colts in the back half of the season by going through a noticeable rough patch. Additionally, the Chiefs oddly struggle at home and seem to suffer collapses during prime time games. But even with all of that on the table, I think the Chiefs will pull this one off and cover the -5 spread. Mahomes is having a historical year and I think their offense is too electric to let them down in this one. The only 2 things that could screw them royally are Andy Reid making stupid clock management mistakes (Very plausible) or their defense shitting the bed completely, but even with the latter scenario I think they’ll outscore Indy.

DALLAS COWBOYS (+7) @ LA RAMS (-7): RAMS -7

If you had told me a few weeks into the season that the Dallas Cowboys would be in the divisional round of the playoffs I would have laughed in your face. Dak and crew looked like they were well on their way to a rebuilding year, but they were eventually able to right the ship through a few solid moves, most notably acquiring Amari Cooper so Dak actually had a target downfield. But this climb is just going to make the fall that much worse for Dallas, as there is a snowballs chance in hell they pull this one off against the Rams. Todd Gurley is coming off of multi week rest at this point and I’m estimating he’s gonna go for 200 yards and 2 TD’s. Goff struggled a bit a few weeks back, but I feel as if he’s gonna come out the way he did earlier this season and have a solid day. The Cowboys will not be able to contain the run nor Cooks, Woods, and Reynolds, and Sam Darnold will sack Dak atleast twice. Sorry Jerry Jones, but you’re not beating LA tomorrow.

SUNDAY

LA CHARGERS (+4.5) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-4.5): PATRIOTS -5

Although the dynasty of my beloved Patriots is very clearly coming to an end before my very eyes, I am confident in the boys come Sunday. Home field advantage has always been a big deal for the Pats in the playoffs, and knowing that Philip Rivers has never won a game (0-7) in his entire career against Brady is another comforting thought. One of the only noticeable things about the Chargers defense is that they pick the ball off a lot, but as we know Brady very rarely throws interceptions, so I don’t see that becoming a factor. While on that subject, Rivers is always good for atleast 1 or 2 clutch interceptions so I hope to see that. As long as our defense can atleast stifle Melvin Gordon in the backfield, as well as hold Keenan Allen to low to moderate usage, I think we’ll be okay. The initial forecast was that it was supposed to snow during the game, and if that were the case I would have bet my soul on this game. Still, Pats -5

PHILADELPIA EAGLES (+9) @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-9): SAINTS -9

Had it not been for Cody Parkey’s all time miss last week, the Eagles wouldn’t even be here. The defending Super Bowl champions (Gagged while typing that) are now back under the command of Nick Foles behind center and admittedly, he seems to have turned things around (Again). All that is well and good, but the Saints are the Saints, and if there’s one thing I know for certain in life, it’s that nobody walks into New Orleans and beats the Saints at home when it counts. Brees was having a career year earlier this season, and even though it’s cooled down a bit, he’s still putting up great passing/completion numbers. Kamara and Ingram are obviously always a threat, and there’s just no way in fuck the Eagles win this game. They could backdoor cover however, but I’m putting my money where my mouth is and sticking with the idea that they lose by more than 9. Why? Because fuck Philly, that’s why. And yes, I’m still mad about last year’s super Bowl.


Before you even say it: Yes, all favorites again, but this is a no brainer. With the exception of the Chiefs, all of the favorites do exceptionally well at home and I believe they’ll cover. Besides the Chargers, the underdogs in this divisional round are appropriately named so, and they squeaked their way into the playoffs so miraculously that it might be proof of a higher power. I know I’ve sucked all year on betting, but I’m going 4/4 this week. End of story. I plan on working on the Draft Kings blog for this weekend sometime later today, so be on the lookout for that. That’s all for now. I’m tired as shit, but atleast it’s Friday and my mouth will be a passageway for many beers just mere hours from now. TGIF indeed.

2 comments

    • Thanks for the comment. And haha yeah, I know the rest of the world wants that to happen, but I’m from Boston so I have no choice but to support Bill, Tom and the boys. Reminder: Rivers is 0-7 against Brady, and I don’t see his first win coming in a winter divisional playoff game in Foxboro

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